Backtest Validation

Methodology

We compare composite scores from T-90 days against actual business openings and closings in the following 90 days to measure predictive accuracy. This tests whether our composite score is a leading indicator of commercial vitality — high scores should correlate with net business growth, and low scores with decline.

Snapshot Scores

Record composite scores for all tracked locations at T-90.

Observe Outcomes

Track actual business openings and closings over the next 90 days.

Measure Accuracy

Compute correlation, hit rate, and miss rate against predictions.

Predictive Metrics

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Score vs. Outcome Scatter

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Scatter plot will appear after 90 days of data collection

X-axis: Composite Score at T-90 | Y-axis: Net Business Openings

Data collection began March 24, 2026. First backtest results will be available approximately June 2026. The model requires at least 90 days of historical score data paired with observed business outcomes to compute meaningful accuracy metrics.